US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

A US special forces soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested and charged for allegedly betting on that operation, netting him $400,000 in profits.

According to an indictment unsealed Thursday, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke opened an account in late December on Polymarket, one of the best-known prediction markets. He wagered about $32,000 that Maduro would be “out” by January. The bet was a long-shot.

But Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, prosecutors allege, and had access to classified information before he placed the bet. His winnings, though anonymous, caught the attention of law enforcement almost immediately.

Van Dyke, an active duty solider stationed at Fort Bragg, faces five criminal charges for stealing and misusing confidential government information, theft and fraud. He will make his first court appearance in North Carolina. No attorney has been listed for him on the court docket.

He allegedly made 13 bets from December 27 to January 2, the last being hours before the overnight capture. Prosecutors said Van Dyke sent his more than $400,000 in profits to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before he deposited them in an online brokerage account.

A master sergeant in the Army is a senior noncommissioned officer, considered a key tactical leader and technical expert and serving as the principal NCO typically at the Army battalion level. Senior NCOs are often looked to for setting and upholding the standard for more junior soldiers in the unit.

“Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain,” said Jay Clayton, US attorney for the Southern District of New York.

Van Dyke was photographed just after the operation – and from when he placed his final bet – on “what appears to be the deck of a ship at sea, at sunrise wearing U.S. military fatigues, and carrying a rifle, standing alongside three other individuals wearing U.S. military fatigues,” court documents say.

Van Dyke profited more than $400,000, prosecutors say. He then allegedly moved those winnings to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before he deposited them in an online brokerage account in what prosecutors called an attempt to conceal their origin.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a related complaint against Van Dyke on Thursday, seeking restitution, disgorgement and civil monetary penalties.

CNN reported last month that federal prosecutors were investigating the Maduro trade, according to a person familiar with the matter. The chiefs of the securities and commodity fraud unit at the US attorney’s office in Manhattan met with representatives at Polymarket last month.

After the bets were placed, the US military launched a covert operation that extradited Maduro from the presidential palace in Caracas in an overnight capture while coming under heavy fire. Maduro was transported to New York to face federal drug-trafficking related charges. He has pleaded not guilty.

Polymarket in a post on X said, “When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works.”

ABC News first reported Thursday’s arrest.

Prediction markets face criticism

Trading on prediction markets has exploded the past year, with users now spending a few billion dollars each week on such sites.

Lawmakers in Congress have introduced more than a dozen new bills this year to further regulate prediction markets. Some of the bills, which gained bipartisan support, would stiffen penalties against government officials who engage in insider trading.

Trump told reporters Thursday he is concerned about the growing trend of betting on geopolitical events. Asked about the charges against the US soldier, the president said he was not familiar with the specifics of the incident but compared it to baseball’s all-time hit leader Pete Rose.

“That’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” Trump said, referring to the late baseball player who was banned from baseball for gambling.

Pressed on whether he is concerned about betting tied to the war with Iran, Trump said it’s a global issue.

“Well I think that the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump said, adding that such betting is happening “all over the world, and every place they’re doing these betting things.”

“Now, I think that I’m not happy with it,” he concluded.

The Trump administration approved Polymarket last year to start offering trades for American customers, but its US-facing site isn’t fully operational yet. The Maduro-related trades occurred on Polymarket’s highly popular international site.

That site operates out of the reach of US regulations – which is how it’s able to offer markets related to war, which is illegal under federal law. But experts say Americans can easily access the offshore site with a virtual private network, or VPN.

There is a debate in the prediction market industry over the role of insiders in prediction markets. Some experts see these markets as a vehicle for information to flow more freely from insiders to the general public.

Asked about insider trading risks, Polymarket’s CEO told Axios in November it was “super cool” that his platform “creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market,” including insiders.

Polymarket rolled out new rules in March, to “clarify three core categories of prohibited insider trading conduct.”

They banned trades based on information that users were legally required to keep confidential, and trades based on tips from someone with the same obligation. They also said people in “a position of authority or influence” to affect the outcome of an event cannot participate in any related markets.