Gaps in national food production, worldwide

Abstract

In light of nationalist trends, disruptions to global food supply chains and efforts to concurrently promote sustainable diets, we assess national capacities to achieve dietary guidelines based on domestic production alone. Over a third of all countries cannot meet self-sufficiency for more than two of the seven essential food groups. Low self-sufficiency and overdependence on a few countries for imports threaten their capability to respond to global shocks, particularly for small states.

Main

Recent disruptions—such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine—have underscored the vulnerability of long food supply chains, prompting renewed discussions on self-sufficiency. In addition, while advocates of the ‘eat local’ movement focus on reducing diet-related emissions, transport contributes only ~5% of food-systems emissions.

This raises the question of whether countries can achieve food self-sufficiency. We use Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets (FBS) 2020 production data and the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF’s) Livewell diet to analyse the discrepancy between domestic food production and dietary guidelines across seven food groups.

Out of 186 countries, 154 can fulfil the requirements for 2 to 5 out of 7 food groups of the Livewell diet through domestic production. Only Guyana achieves self-sufficiency for all seven food groups, while China and Vietnam attain six. By contrast, six countries, primarily in the Middle East—Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, China Macao Special Administrative Region, Qatar and Yemen—do not achieve the needs of any food group. More than one-third of all countries achieve self-sufficiency for two or fewer groups.

Regarding animal agriculture, meat self-sufficiency is relatively high, with 65% of countries achieving their dietary needs. Fish and seafood self-sufficiency is particularly low across most regions, with only 25% achieving sufficiency. Globally, 60% of countries cannot cover half of their fish needs.

Vegetable self-sufficiency is also a major challenge, with fewer than one quarter of countries (24%) meeting the requirements. While regional trade enhances self-sufficiency, it also exposes countries to risks if they rely too heavily on a narrow group of trade partners. For example, West Africa’s high dependence on rice imports makes the region vulnerable to market shocks.

Countries characterized by low self-sufficiency and high reliance on a single or a few trading partners face increased vulnerability to disruptions. Trade between countries with surplus food production and those with shortfalls can notably boost self-sufficiency, but the perishable nature of certain foods and trade dynamics still affect nutrient availability. These findings suggest that many countries currently fall short of their domestic food needs, requiring more resilient and diversified food systems.