Cloudflare targets 2029 for full post-quantum security

Cloudflare is accelerating its post-quantum roadmap. We now target 2029 to be fully post-quantum (PQ) secure including, crucially, post-quantum authentication.

At Cloudflare, we believe in making the Internet private and secure by default. We started by offering free universal SSL certificates in 2014, began preparing our post-quantum migration in 2019, and enabled post-quantum encryption for all websites and APIs in 2022, mitigating harvest-now/decrypt-later attacks. While weâre excited by the fact that over 65% of human traffic to Cloudflare is post-quantum encrypted, our work is not done until authentication is also upgraded. Credible new research and rapid industry developments suggest that the deadline to migrate is much sooner than expected. This is a challenge that any organization must treat with urgency, which is why weâre expediting our own internal Q-Day readiness timeline.

What happened? Last week, Google announced they had drastically improved upon the quantum algorithm to break elliptic curve cryptography, which is widely used to secure the Internet. They did not reveal the algorithm, but instead provided a zero-knowledge proof that they have one.

This is not even the biggest breakthrough. That same day, Oratomic published a resource estimate for breaking RSA-2048 and P-256 on a neutral atom computer. For P-256, it only requires a shockingly low 10,000 qubits. Googleâs motivation behind their recent announcement to also pursue neutral atoms alongside superconducting quantum computers becomes clear now. Although Oratomic explains their basic approach, they still leave out crucial details on purpose.

These independent advances prompted Google to accelerate their post-quantum migration timeline to 2029. Whatâs more, in their announcement and other talks, Google has placed a priority on quantum-secure authentication over mitigating harvest-now/decrypt-later attacks. As we discuss next, this priority indicates that Google is concerned about Q-Day coming as soon as 2030. Following the announcements, IBM Quantum Safeâs CTO is more pessimistic and canât rule out quantum âmoonshot attacksâ on high value targets as early as 2029.

The quantum threat is well known: Q-Day is the day that sufficiently capable quantum computers can break essential cryptography used to protect data and access across systems today.* *Cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) donât exist yet, but many labs across the world are pursuing different approaches to building one. Until recently, progress on CRQCs has been mostly public, but there is no reason to expect that will continue. Indeed, there is ample reason to expect that progress will leave the public eye. As quantum computer scientist Scott Aaronson warned at the end of 2025:

[A]t some point, the people doing detailed estimates of how many physical qubits and gates itâll take to break actually deployed cryptosystems using Shorâs algorithm are going to stop publishing those estimates, if for no other reason than the risk of giving too much information to adversaries. Indeed, for all we know, that point may have been passed already.

That point has now passed indeed.

Why now: independent progress on three fronts

Weâd like to spend some words on why itâs difficult to predict progress on quantum computing. Sudden âquantumâ leaps in understanding, like the one we witnessed last week, can occur even if everything happens in the public eye. Simply put, breaking cryptography with a quantum computer requires engineering on three independent fronts: quantum hardware, error correction, and quantum software. Progress on each front compounds progress on the others.

Hardware. There are many different competing approaches. We mentioned neutral atoms and superconducting qubits, but there are also ion-trap, photonics, and moonshots like topological qubits. Complementary approaches can even be combined. Most of these approaches are pursued by several labs around the world. They all have their distinct engineering challenges and problems to solve before they can scale up. A few years ago, all of them had a long list of open challenges, and it was unclear if any of them would scale. Today most of them have made good progress. None have been demonstrated to scale yet: if they had, we wouldnât have a couple of years left. But these approaches are much closer now, especially neutral atoms. To ignore this progress, youâd have to believe that every single approach will hit a wall.

Error correction. All quantum computers are noisy and require error-correcting codes to perform meaningful computation. This adds quite a bit of overhead, though how much depends on the architecture. More noise requires more error correction, but more interestingly, improved qubit connectivity allows for much more efficient codes. For a sense of scale: typically around a thousand physical qubits are required for one logical qubit for the superconducting quantum computers that are noisy and only have neighbor qubit connectivity. We knew âreconfigurable qubitsâ such as those of neutral-atom machines allow for an order of magnitude better error-correcting codes. Surprisingly, Oratomic showed the advantage is even larger: only about 3-4 physical neutral atom qubits are required per logical qubit.

**Software. **Lastly, the quantum algorithms to crack cryptography can be improved. This is Googleâs breakthrough: they massively sped up the algorithm to crack P-256. On top of that, Oratomic showed further architecture specific optimizations for reconfigurable qubits.

The picture comes together: in 2025 neutral atoms turned out to be more scalable than expected, and now Oratomic figured out how to do much better error-correcting codes with such highly connected qubits. On top of that, breaking P-256 requires much less work. The result is that Q-Day has been pulled forward significantly from typical 2035+ timelines, with neutral atoms in the lead, and other approaches not far behind.

In previous blog posts weâve discussed how different quantum computers compare on physical qubit count and fidelity, compared to the conservative goalpost of cracking RSA-2048 on a superconducting qubit architecture. This analysis gives us a rough idea of how much time we have, and itâs certainly better than tracking quantum factoring records, but it misses architecture-specific optimization and software improvements. What to watch for now is when the final missing capabilities for each architecture are achieved.

Itâs time to focus on authentication

Historically, the industryâs focus on post-quantum cryptography (PQC) has been based largely on PQ *encryption, *which stops harvest-now/decrypt-later (HNDL) attacks. In an HNDL attack, an adversary harvests sensitive encrypted network traffic today and stores it until a future date when it can use a powerful quantum computer to decrypt the data. HNDL attacks are the primary threat when Q-Day is far away. Thatâs why our focus, thus far, has been on mitigating this risk, by adopting post-quantum encryption by default in our products since 2022. Today, as we mentioned above, most Cloudflare products are secure against HNDL attacks, and weâre working to upgrade the rest as we speak.Â

The other category of attacks is against authentication: adversaries armed with functioning quantum computers impersonate servers or forge access credentials. If Q-Day is far off, authentication is not urgent: deploying PQ certificates and signatures does not add any value, only effort.

An imminent Q-Day flips the script: data leaks are severe, but broken authentication is catastrophic. Any overlooked quantum-vulnerable remote-login key is an access point for an attacker to do as they wish, whether thatâs to extort, take down, or snoop on your system. Any automatic software-update mechanism becomes a remote code execution vector. An active