’Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

“Horekunden” was rapidly losing patience. His frustration was with the Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank which produces a daily map of the frontline in Ukraine. For Horekunden, and other anonymous gamblers, the map was a “disjointed, incoherent mess … like the painting of a five-year-old”. Therefore it was no use to them in their aim: to settle a bet on the online prediction market Polymarket.

The map they were unhappy with depicted the city of Kostyantynivka, which Ukrainian troops have been holding for five months amid shelling and swarms of drones. Thousands of civilians still live there. There is now more than $500,000 (£371,000) staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka this year. These bets will be settled if the ISW releases a map showing Russia holds the city’s train station.

In a thriving online economy, thousands of people are discussing how to profit from war. They are betting on Ukraine. They were betting on the US-Iran ceasefire – $280m in play. They are betting on whether the US will invade Iran – $7.5m wagered. In groups hosted by the messaging app Discord, they debate what might come to pass. “Shit can go really wrong. WW3 may happen,” wrote a user this week who had money on whether the US would strike the oil terminal on Iran’s Kharg Island.

And, sometimes, they appear to be collaborating to influence the course of events, or at least how events are recorded. Critics have called this immoral; US senators have called for Polymarket to be regulated. Polymarket, however, views itself as a source of truth. Several weeks ago, amid reports that it appeared to be hosting insider bets on US strikes against Iran, it posted a “Note on Middle East Markets”.

The rise and rise of Polymarket

In July 2024, shortly before Donald Trump was re-elected in the US, Polymarket had reported about $400m total traded on its platforms that year. It now can trade upward of that in a single day. It calls itself a “prediction market” – a way to gather data on the future by offering the public a way to bet on it. But longtime users say it increasingly resembles a casino – where everything, from Trump’s fury to the second coming of Jesus Christ can be monetised.

Polymarket gamblers recently threatened an Israeli journalist, demanding he change his copy so that they could win a bet over whether Iran had struck Israel on a given day. Experts say that users on Polymarket might be able to manipulate broader markets, with effects that could ripple out to institutions and pension funds.

As for the Ukrainian frontline, after venting about ISW’s map on the Discord channel, Horekunden decided to take things further. He appealed to another user, @tsybka, whose X profile describes him as a “top 0.001% trader” on the platform. The ISW insisted it did “not engage with the users or representatives of such platforms”. “We strongly condemn and have never consented to the exploitation of our products for the abhorrent purpose of gambling on war,” said a spokesperson.

‘No one wants to make money off war or people dying, but …’

“I love to gamble,” said Joseph Francia. Now in his early 30s, Francia counted cards in casinos while studying economics at Berkeley. In 2025, he started Prediction Hunt, a Discord channel and online community where thousands of people gather to trade tips and ideas for how to make money – and bet smart – on Polymarket.

There are alerts to track “fade” bets, potential insiders, and arbitrage alerts. In early March, one such alert pointed at two different sets of odds between Polymarket and Kalshi on whether Mojtaba Khamenei would be the next supreme leader of Iran. “Those are really tricky because I think there absolutely is a gruesome aspect to it,” said Francia, asked about the bets on war.

“No one wants to make money off war or some amount of people dying. But at the same time... you don’t know what’s propaganda, what’s true, what’s fake. Those are legitimate questions and a good place to turn to is Polymarket.” War betting is a “tough frame”, said Mike Kane, another user. The Guardian spoke to several other users, including a US high school student who made $200 betting on how many times Trump might say specific phrases in a speech.